HURRICANE IKE UPDATE

Hi All,

Latest data puts us in the range of 20 - 30% probability of winds of 35 knots, circa 39MPH.

Keep updated on the path of this storm.

Click once and then click again for large clear image.

Dave Israel

HURRICANE IKE LOOKING BETTER FOR WPB

Hurricane IKE projected track looking less likely for landfall in WPB.

BUT

These storm tracks ar notoriously erratic; so be prepared!

Dave Israel

Storm Blog Canned Cookbook

Get your favorite cans in stock and you are ready for hurricanes.
Lazy cold recipe is a chilled salad, with canned chicken, one can mexicorn niblets, one can rinsed black beans, some frozen baby peas, sweet chopped onions, season, add other things if you like.
Lazy hot recipe, sauté plenty sweet chopped onions, add one can Italian diced tomatoes, one can Italian cut drained green beans, one can drained white beans, any stock, garlic, any meat like smoked turkey sausage, or chicken, whatever. (Italian seasoning is important). You could make this, freeze it and then eat when power is out as it thaws.
If you have no electricity, no ice, no bbq, *^#@* you will still eat.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER - NOAA SITE

Hi All,
With a Conga line of storms training across the Atlantic; I have placed yet another Storm Tracker Site on the BLOG.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

This URL will be permanent under "Favorite Sites" in the Sidebar.

Be ready, just in case!!!

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE HYROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
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Dave Israel

RIG FOR HEAVY WEATHER; A MATTER OF FETCH

Hi All,
Plus or minus a bit of movement right or left; the Storm Track of TS Fay is not yet certain.

Of potential import to us here in WPB is the matter of "Fetch". If the storm hugs the coast of South Western Florida with epicenter in the Gulf, the "Fetch" refers to the quantity of open water over which the storm travels, that the storm will pull up and dump as torrential rain right here in WPB. The point being that we, being on the Eastern exposure of the Storm could get heavily dumped on!

Dave Israel

Following is the 2:00pm Bulletin:




TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008...

CENTER OF FAY APPROACHING KEY WEST...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 52 MPH...83 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 159FEET.

KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.3 N...81.6 W.

MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

Storm Prep Tips from FPL

Before the Storm

• Develop an emergency plan including evacuation routes and special medical needs.
• Update your FPL account phone number at www.FPL.com. This will expedite the response time to your phone call in the event of an outage.
• Turn off and unplug a TV set before lowering a TV antenna or satellite dish. Avoid power lines.
• Turn off and unplug any non-essential electrical equipment.
• To keep food fresh in the event of a power outage, turn refrigerators and freezers to their coldest settings ahead of time.
• In the event of a power outage, make sure you have a battery-operated radio, multiple flashlights, and a battery-operated fan along with extra batteries.
• Put important documents in a waterproof container.

During the Storm

• If your electricity goes off:
• Freezer foods can last up to three days. They're safe to eat if they still have ice crystals at the center.
• Post a list of contents on your freezer to minimum the times you open it.

After the Storm

• Please be patient. Listen to your local radio news on a battery-powered radio for regular updates from FPL. Assume that FPL is aware of mass outages. However, if your neighbors have power and you don't, have your account number and call 1-800-4OUTAGE (1-800-468-8243).
• For your safety, please stay away from fallen wire flooded areas and debris.
• Please be careful to follow safe operating procedure for generators. Never run them inside your home.
• Visually inspect the area around your electricity meter (outside). If you detect or suspect any damage call an electrician.

Storm Track Map PB Post

Click on title. I will put this link on the Members Favorite Links on left sidebar. It should constantly update the storm map. Fay looks as if she doesn’t like water, the track goes over every possible bit of land.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/storm/homepage/index.html

Storm Advisory Alerts

I already received warning about storm Arthur, this seems to work much better than the PBC alert system of several years ago.
Want to stay on top of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean? Just sign up for our e-mail alerts and have the latest tropical weather advisories sent straight to your inbox.
http://www.PalmBeachPost.com/storm/email
I do like the animated maps on the main page http://www.PalmBeachPost.com/storm