RIG FOR HEAVY WEATHER; A MATTER OF FETCH

Hi All,
Plus or minus a bit of movement right or left; the Storm Track of TS Fay is not yet certain.

Of potential import to us here in WPB is the matter of "Fetch". If the storm hugs the coast of South Western Florida with epicenter in the Gulf, the "Fetch" refers to the quantity of open water over which the storm travels, that the storm will pull up and dump as torrential rain right here in WPB. The point being that we, being on the Eastern exposure of the Storm could get heavily dumped on!

Dave Israel

Following is the 2:00pm Bulletin:




TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008...

CENTER OF FAY APPROACHING KEY WEST...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 52 MPH...83 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 159FEET.

KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.3 N...81.6 W.

MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN