PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION

77 DAYS – PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION A MOST DANGEROUS TIME
-----
From the end of Election Day to 12:00 Noon on January 20 is known as the Presidential Transition period. The process of transfer of power is incredibly complex and fraught with dangers to the Nation which you may have never thought about. The principle purpose of the Transition process is to help the new Administration climb the incredibly steep learning curve that is required to function “at the highest levels of Government”. Having been involved for the Intelligence Community in the process of Transition in support of the Clinton election, I will attempt to provide some information on the concerns of the Intelligence Community in bringing the President Elect and his immediate Transition Team up to speed on the vast knowledge base available in the classified world, that is the Intelligence Communities view of how the world works!

-----
A presidential transition is a unique time in America and holds the promise of opportunity, as well as a possible risk to the nation’s security interests. The 2008-2009 election marks the first presidential transition in the post-9/11 era, and is of concern to many national security observers. While changes in administration during U.S. involvement in national security related activities are not unique to the 2008-2009 election, many observers suggest that the current security climate and recent acts of terrorism by individuals wishing to influence national elections and change foreign policies portend a time of increased risk to the current presidential transition period.

-----

Whether the enemies of the United States choose to undertake action that may harm the nation’s security interests during the 2008-2009 election, or the new President experiences a relatively peaceful period during the transition, many foreign and domestic policy and security challenges will await the new Administration.

-----

How the new President recognizes and responds to these challenges will depend heavily on the planning and learning that occurs prior to the inauguration. Actions can be taken by the outgoing President and President-elect that may ameliorate decision making activities in the new administration.

-----

Whether an incident of national security significance occurs just before or soon after the presidential transition, the actions or inactions of the outgoing Administration may have a long-lasting effect on the new President’s ability to effectively safeguard U.S. interests and may affect the legacy of the outgoing President.

-----
Following the Election, The outgoing President retains all the formal legal powers of the presidency, yet his last electoral success is four years removed and his political capital is at low ebb. The outgoing President will want to protect his policies or accomplishments from being reversed or undermined and may also want to create obstacles to prevent his successor from too quickly achieving political and policy success.

-----

The incoming President, on the other hand, will be focused on beginning his own initiatives and may desire to expeditiously reverse the policies of the previous President.” When the
incoming and outgoing Presidents are from opposing political parties the conflicts during the transition period may be even more acute.

-----

Enemies that pose a risk to the United States may activate domestically and internationally and take the form of foreign and American citizens who are aligned with nation states whose intent is inimical to our National interest.
-----

The new Administration is likely to face many national security challenges on taking office. Some security experts suggest that the presidential transition period of 2008-2009 may be unique given the quantity, diversity, and breadth of security risks confronting the nation.

-----

The incoming Administration is likely to face three distinct types of national security challenges that could translate into short- and long term national security risks. The national security challenges the next administration might face include the following:

! Current U.S. military engagements: Iraq, Afghanistan, and other
military support or training activities related to the global war on
terrorism and counter-proliferation efforts.
-----
! Risks posed in countries and regions of concern: Iran, North
Korea, Russia, China, Republic of Serbia, Venezuela, Cuba, and the
Middle East; and
-----
! Risks associated with contemporary issues: the role of U.S.
foreign policy in international security matters, the role of the
military in nation-building activities and diplomatic endeavors,
international terrorism, non-proliferation, and homeland security.
-----
While the issues are not exhaustive and may not require the same level of attention and priority based on the new Administration’s foreign and domestic security objectives, time devoted to understanding these and other challenges prior to the inauguration may better prepare the newly elected President to make well reasoned decisions on assuming office.

Dave Israel